Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033958 0.038664 0.043810 0.049860 0.056783 0.064463 0.073641
2025-02-02 0.027225 0.033770 0.041584 0.051619 0.064195 0.079473 0.099504
2025-02-09 0.023633 0.031055 0.040457 0.053279 0.070377 0.092485 0.123391
2025-02-16 0.020400 0.028087 0.038302 0.052932 0.073456 0.101386 0.142553
2025-02-23 0.018154 0.026022 0.036920 0.053206 0.077087 0.111071 0.163543
2025-03-02 0.016077 0.023879 0.035090 0.052486 0.079019 0.118313 0.181564
2025-03-09 0.014839 0.022774 0.034569 0.053521 0.083503 0.129584 0.206703
2025-03-16 0.013414 0.021208 0.033155 0.052973 0.085387 0.136928 0.226323
2025-03-23 0.012688 0.020639 0.033190 0.054653 0.090901 0.150459 0.257384
2025-03-30 0.011360 0.018956 0.031267 0.052907 0.090529 0.154204 0.272161
2025-04-06 0.010395 0.017773 0.030038 0.052171 0.091734 0.160630 0.292174
2025-04-13 0.009330 0.016316 0.028203 0.050188 0.090516 0.162637 0.304285
2025-04-20 0.008988 0.016104 0.028521 0.052097 0.096569 0.178424 0.344188
2025-04-27 0.008653 0.015873 0.028784 0.053937 0.102695 0.195002 0.387643
2025-05-04 0.008330 0.015629 0.028991 0.055674 0.108774 0.212065 0.433985
2025-05-11 0.007759 0.014864 0.028156 0.055311 0.110682 0.221142 0.464975
2025-05-18 0.007324 0.014317 0.027680 0.055599 0.113901 0.233127 0.503412
2025-05-25 0.006807 0.013564 0.026737 0.054844 0.114882 0.240571 0.532810
2025-06-01 0.006536 0.013279 0.026691 0.055928 0.119827 0.256830 0.583694
2025-06-08 0.006117 0.012652 0.025898 0.055354 0.121124 0.265320 0.617754
2025-06-15 0.005956 0.012550 0.026177 0.057113 0.127734 0.286194 0.683346
2025-06-22 0.005479 0.011734 0.024884 0.055285 0.126055 0.288128 0.703470
2025-06-29 0.005135 0.011177 0.024097 0.054515 0.126726 0.295531 0.737905